Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-07 28.082892 29.993854 32.052008 34.448412 37.181458 40.225374 43.906485
2025-12-14 24.340607 26.743933 29.471389 32.840960 36.958496 41.920808 48.511379
2025-12-21 22.859398 25.597125 28.817071 32.966605 38.305854 45.155334 55.006605
2025-12-28 21.852750 24.846440 28.471821 33.313426 39.831920 48.689240 62.463629
2026-01-04 20.554861 23.605357 27.371644 32.524515 39.685308 49.830751 66.583972
2026-01-11 20.044971 23.288971 27.386246 33.157172 41.496743 53.962651 76.290921
2026-01-18 19.481033 22.851476 27.189699 33.452736 42.818420 57.517649 86.002895
2026-01-25 18.653871 22.016934 26.399260 32.830183 42.672103 58.653931 91.474097
2026-02-01 17.900352 21.237761 25.632168 32.171675 42.383509 59.477833 96.532475
2026-02-08 16.951017 20.156397 24.395935 30.743433 40.743570 57.712385 95.422208
2026-02-15 16.790049 20.122804 24.601435 31.454496 42.604627 62.507671 111.258326
2026-02-22 16.612503 20.053954 24.746918 32.076021 44.375439 67.468278 130.292916
2026-03-01 16.035575 19.486675 24.257351 31.852845 44.986372 70.929918 150.093194
2026-03-08 15.158532 18.475111 23.087661 30.495265 43.480096 69.749252 154.661579
2026-03-15 14.770709 18.123518 22.851581 30.598637 44.623221 74.691461 187.833684
2026-03-22 14.470437 17.877009 22.749886 30.903450 46.182634 81.146862 241.056771
2026-03-29 13.945022 17.282808 22.089229 30.211802 45.688668 82.280041 269.106199
2026-04-05 13.763285 17.174791 22.158750 30.766489 47.790455 91.218617 390.708588
2026-04-12 13.525131 16.971589 22.066253 31.025253 49.314833 99.271179 587.572734
2026-04-19 13.124279 16.511879 21.547621 30.479940 48.999734 101.371564 740.990509
2026-04-26 12.741324 16.065538 21.030432 29.902020 48.542188 102.889589 942.640494
2026-05-03 12.231588 15.415891 20.167259 28.644606 46.408025 97.873501 852.562805
2026-05-10 12.151277 15.405227 20.322291 29.271303 48.721604 110.222560 2681.466406